Tahoe | Truckee 2023 October Market Report

Coldwell Banker

2023 Real Estate Market Report

North Lake Tahoe -Truckee

Residential Properties – Single Family Homes and Condominiums

Activity January- October 2023

Residential Sales Summary 2023

Total Residential Sales:

After a slow first half of the year, the Lake Tahoe/Truckee real estate market has steadied in the second half of the year. After hitting just 66% of the 10 year average for transactions in the first half of the year, Q3 jumped to 80% of the 10 year average for the quarter. August, September, and now October, all came in at 85-87% of the 5 and 10 year averages for the respective months (the closest we have come to monthly averages this year). To be clear, the market is “steady”, but not “busy”.

In October, 133 residences sold. That is up from 82 sales in October 2022 and is 86% of both the 5 year and 10 year averages for the month. If you like to play with numbers, and want to feel even more comfortable about the market, remove the COVID “boom” year outlier (272 sales in October 2020) and you would find this October at 94% of the 10 year average. That’s a healthy number!

Through the end of October, 883 residences have sold this year. This marks the lowest January through October total in the last 10 years and is 75% of the average of the 5 years immediately prior to COVID.

Median and Average Sales Prices:

The median sales price for residential real estate YTD (through October) came in at $1.085 million while the average was at $1.566 million.

For single family homes, the median sales price YTD is $1.2 million. That represents a decrease of 4% compared to the same period in 2022. However, it is still 62% higher than the same period in 2019 (pre-pandemic). For October only, the median single family sales price is up 2% compared to October 2022, and up 75% compared to October 2019. For October only, the average is down 12% compared to October 2022 and up 60% compared to October 2019.

For condos, the year to date median was $702,000. That’s down 7% compared to the same period in 2022, but up 62% compared to 2019. For October only, the median condo sales price is up 14% compared to October 2022, and up 55% compared to October 2019. For October only, the average is down 1% compared to October 2022 and up 49% compared to October 2019.

Despite the low numbers of transactions, the strength in pricing has us tracking toward the 4^th highest sales volume in the last 10 years.

Active Residential Inventory:

Active Listings:

Active inventory got as high as 370 residences over the Labor Day Holiday but has dropped down to 285 (and will continue to drop as we head into winter). Last year, at this time, inventory had already dipped down to 250 residences, but in 2019 the number was slightly over 500. Looking at long term numbers, inventory is still at the lowest levels we have seen historically prior to COVID (Around 60% of the average for the 5 years prior to COVID and 40% of the 10 year average) for this time of year.

Current Pending Sales: The number of pending sales dropped to 85 after having stayed in the 130-150 range most of summer. About 85 residences went into contract in October (down from 130 in September).

Current inventory represents 3.4 months of supply. Historically any number below 5 months of supply is considered a seller’s market. But, this is a fairly balanced market, with slight advantages to buyers or sellers in different price ranges and neighborhoods.

Sales Under $500,000: January through October there were 55 sales under $500k, representing 6% of all residential sales. For the same period in 2022, 6% of sales were under $500k.

Mid-Range Market Sales $500,000 to $999,999: 341 residences have sold between $500,000 and $999,999, representing 39% of total sales. In 2022, 37% of sales were in this price range.

High End Home Sales $1,000,000 to $1,999,999: 328 residences sold between $1m – $2m, representing 37% of total sales. In 2022, 39% of residential sales were in this range.

Luxury Home Sales Over $2 Million: 159 residences sold over $2 million, representing 18% of sales. This includes 42 sales over $5 million of which 7 were over $10 million. In 2022, 18% of residential sales were over $2 million including 44 sales over $5 million of which 13 were over $10 million and 2 over $20 million.

What’s Going On Looking Forward?

Here we go again . . . Old Man Winter is knocking on the door! Before you know it, we’ll be skiing!

When the market is healthy, fall is a busy season for us. So far, activity has been solid. It feels like there is still solid demand (including new buyers entering the market). Many motivated sellers remain on the market along with new sellers entering. However, the standing inventory, and new inventory, is diminishing fast (as it typically does at this time of year). The number of new transactions will diminish as well.

My hunch is the number of transactions will be low this winter (compared to 10 year averages), but it still might be a good time to be a seller (very little supply means very little competition to accompany healthy demand).

Sellers, keep in mind, this is still a much better time to be a seller than it was in 2019 (which seemed like a very healthy market at the time!). You can expect a similar amount of time on market, but much higher sales prices!

Buyers, keep in mind, this is the most balanced market we have seen in the last 3 years. You now have the following things working in your favor:

The ability to negotiate price is back!
The ability to inspect a property and have normal contingencies is back!
The ability to negotiate repairs is back!
Yes, interest rates are climbing, but if they continue to climb you will be glad you locked in now. If/when they do reverse course, you can refinance to take advantage!

Contact Me Today to Find Out More about the Opportunities Available in the North Lake Tahoe-Truckee Market.

Note: Data on this page is based on information from the Tahoe Sierra Board of Realtors, MLS. Due to MLS reporting methods and allowable reporting policy, this data is only informational and may not be completely accurate. Therefore, Coldwell Banker Realty does not guarantee the data’s accuracy. Data maintained by the MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. CA-BRE License # 01908304