Tahoe | Truckee 2023 November Market Report

Coldwell Banker

2023 Real Estate Market Report

North Lake Tahoe -Truckee

Residential Properties – Single Family Homes and Condominiums

Activity January- November 2023

Residential Sales Summary 2023

Total Residential Sales:

After a slow first half of the year, the Lake Tahoe/Truckee real estate market has steadied in the second half of the year. After hitting just 66% of the 10 year average for transactions in the first half of the year, Q3 jumped to 80% of the 10 year average for the quarter. August, September, and October, all came in at 85-87% of the 5 and 10 year averages for the respective months (the closest we have come to monthly averages this year). The market has felt “steady”, but not “busy”.

That said, in November, just 83 residences sold. That is down from 91 sales in November 2022 and is the lowest November total of the last 10 years. It is 63% of both the 5 year and 10 year averages for the month.

Through the end of November, 966 residences have sold this year. This marks the lowest January through November total in the last 10 years and is 71% of the 5 year average for the month and 73% of the 10 year average.

Median and Average Sales Prices:

The median sales price for residential real estate YTD (through November) came in at $1.083 million while the average was at $1.557 million.

For single family homes, the median sales price YTD is $1.2 million. That represents a decrease of 3% compared to the same period in 2022. However, it is still 62% higher than the same period in 2019 (pre-pandemic). For the same period the average single family sales price was $1.764 million, down 6% from 2022, but up 55% compared to 2019. For November only, the median single family sales price is up 14% compared to November 2022, and up 52% compared to November 2019.

For condos, the year to date median was $726,000. That’s down 1% compared to the same period in 2022, but up 67% compared to 2019. The average condo sales price was $982k, up 9% from 2022, and up 75% from 2019.

Despite the low numbers of transactions, the strength in pricing has us tracking toward the 4^th highest sales volume in the last 10 years.

Active Residential Inventory:

Active Listings:

Active inventory got as high as 370 residences over the Labor Day Holiday but has dropped down to 235. This number should stay fairly steady through the winter. Last year, at this time, inventory had dipped down to 220 residences, but in 2019 the number was about 435. Looking at long term numbers, inventory is still at the lowest levels we have seen historically prior to COVID (Around 60% of the average for the 5 years prior to COVID and 40% of the 10 year average) for this time of year.

Current Pending Sales: The number of pending sales has dropped to 70 after having stayed in the 130-150 range most of summer. About 65 residences went into contract in November (down from 85 in October).

Current inventory represents 3.6 months of supply. Historically any number below 5 months of supply is considered a seller’s market. But, this is a fairly balanced market, with slight advantages to buyers or sellers in different price ranges and neighborhoods.

Sales Under $500,000: January through November there were 57 sales under $500k, representing 6% of all residential sales. For the same period in 2022, 6% of sales were under $500k.

Mid-Range Market Sales $500,000 to $999,999: 375 residences have sold between $500,000 and $999,999, representing 39% of total sales. In 2022, 37% of sales were in this price range.

High End Home Sales $1,000,000 to $1,999,999: 361 residences sold between $1m – $2m, representing 37% of total sales. In 2022, 37% of residential sales were in this range.

Luxury Home Sales Over $2 Million: 173 residences sold over $2 million, representing 18% of sales. This includes 44 sales over $5 million of which 7 were over $10 million. In 2022, 20% of residential sales were over $2 million including 46 sales over $5 million of which 15 were over $10 million and 2 over $20 million.

What’s Going On Looking Forward?

PRAY FOR SNOW!!!! Old Man Winter is a little lazy so far this year. It has been cold, but there hasn’t been much precipitation. Ski areas are open with limited terrain.

It feels like there is still solid demand (including new buyers entering the market) as interest rates are dropping and the stock market is at 2 year highs. This could be a great winter to be a seller since there isn’t much competition on the supply side. The number of transactions is always low in winter, but we are predicting an active and healthy market. Prices should hold steady.

Sellers, keep in mind, this is still a much better time to be a seller than it was in 2019 (which seemed like a very healthy market at the time!). You can expect a similar amount of time on market, but much higher sales prices!

Buyers, keep in mind, this is the most balanced market we have seen in the last 3 years. You now have the following things working in your favor:

The ability to negotiate price is back!
The ability to inspect a property and have normal contingencies is back!
The ability to negotiate repairs is back!
Yes, interest rates are climbing, but if they continue to climb you will be glad you locked in now. If/when they do reverse course, you can refinance to take advantage!

Contact Me Today to Find Out More about the Opportunities Available in the North Lake Tahoe-Truckee Market.

Note: Data on this page is based on information from the Tahoe Sierra Board of Realtors, MLS. Due to MLS reporting methods and allowable reporting policy, this data is only informational and may not be completely accurate. Therefore, Coldwell Banker Realty does not guarantee the data’s accuracy. Data maintained by the MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. CA-BRE License # 01908304