Market Stats March 23, 2023

Tahoe | Truckee 2023 February Market Report

Sand Harbor

Coldwell Banker

2023 Real Estate Market Report

North Lake Tahoe -Truckee                         

Residential Properties – Single Family Homes and Condominiums

Activity January- February 2023

Residential Sales Summary 2023

Total Residential Sales:

Intense winter weather and ongoing economic headwinds have continued to limit the number of real estate transactions in the Tahoe region.  In February, 49 Residences sold, which is the lowest number of February sales in the last 10 years and 76% of the 5 year average for the month and 75% of the 10 year average.

February marked the fifth consecutive month that we hit a 10 year low for the number of residential transactions for the month.  At this point, the lack of activity is clearly a trend and not an anomaly.

Year to date, 100 residential transactions have closed.  This, again, marks the lowest number in the last 10 years and 63% of the 5 year average and 65% of the 10 year average.  It should be said, winter is always our slowest time of year, so don’t panic about these numbers.  A couple busy spring and summer months can easily put thing back on track.  The question is, how busy will spring and summer be this year?

Median and Average Sales Prices:

With the small number of transactions, median and average sales prices tend to bounce around rapidly as they get skewed by what would normally be minor anomalies.

The median sales price for February came in at $1,087,500 and the average was at $1,623,989.  Year to date, the median sits at $1,015,000 and the average at $1,452,186.

For single family homes the median was $1,242,500 and the average $1,992,661.  Year to date the median is $1,130,000 and the average $1,715,557.

For condos and townhomes the median was $613,500 and the average $728,642.  Year to date the condo median is $735,000 and the average is $1,003,743.

We’ll take a closer look at comparisons to past years after we finish Q1.

Active Residential Inventory:

Active Listings:

We are in the heart of winter, when inventory hits annual lows.  There are 155 residences currently on the market.  Last year, at this time, there were about 80 residences actively for sale, but in 2019 the number was closer to 350.  Looking at long term numbers, inventory is still at the lowest levels we have seen historically prior to COVID (Around 60% of the average for the 5 years prior to COVID and 40% of the 10 year average) for this time of year.

For 22 consecutive months the number of new listings for that month has been below the 5 and 10 year averages.  In each of those 22 months the number of new listings has been among the 3 lowest totals for that month in the last 10 years.

Current Pending Sales:  The number of pending sales is at 57 (holding steady around 60 for the last 3 months).  About 40 residences went into contract in February (down from around 50 in December and January).

Current inventory represents about 3.9 months of supply relative to February activity.  Historically any number below 5 months of supply is considered a seller’s market.  But, this is a much more balanced market, even tipping toward buyer’s market, than that statistic might lead you to believe.

Sales Under $500,000:  Through February there were 11 sales under $500k, representing 11% of all residential sales.  For the same period in 2022, 9% of sales were under $500k.

Mid-Range Market Sales $500,000 to $999,999:  38 residences have sold between $500,000 and $999,999, representing 38% of total sales.   In 2022, 39% of sales were in this price range.

High End Home Sales $1,000,000 to $1,999,999:   35 residences sold between $1m – $2m, representing 35% of total sales.  In 2022, 32% of residential sales were in this range.

Luxury Home Sales Over $2 Million:   16 residences sold over $2 million, representing 16% of sales.  This includes 5 sales over $5 million.  In 2022, 22% of residential sales were over $2 million.

What’s Going On Looking Forward?

It’s official . . . per the Sierra Snow Lab on Donner Summit, this is the 2nd snowiest winter since they started keeping records in 1946.  The intense winter has definitely impacted what was already a slowing real estate market.  In the past, big winters have resulted in increased supply in the spring and summer (seller’s saying, “I don’t want to deal with that again”) while also increasing demand (buyer’s saying, “what an incredible ski season, let’s buy a house!”).

Which force will be stronger in spring and summer of 2023?

Low inventory will continue to be the story at least until the snow melts (May? June??).  It will be interesting to see if the intense winter and economic headwinds will be enough to push supply closer to “pre-covid” norms after we thaw out.

There is a little bit of momentum building on the demand side . . . a few more showings, more people visiting open houses, a handful of multiple offer situations in the last week, a few properties selling that had been on the market for an extended time.  We’ll have to wait and see if that momentum is sustainable in the current economic environment or just a blip on the radar.

Sellers, keep in mind, this is still a much better time to be a seller than it was in 2019 (which seemed like a very healthy market at the time!).  You can expect a similar amount of time on market, but much higher sales prices!

Buyers, keep in mind, this is the most balanced market we have seen in the last 3 years.  You now have the following things working in your favor:

  • The ability to negotiate price is back!
  • The ability to inspect a property and have normal contingencies is back!
  • The ability to negotiate repairs is back!
  • Yes, interest rates are climbing, but if they continue to climb you will be glad you locked in now.  If/when they do reverse course, you can refinance to take advantage!

Contact Me Today to Find Out More about the Opportunities Available in the North Lake Tahoe-Truckee Market.

Note: Data on this page is based on information from the Tahoe Sierra Board of Realtors, MLS.  Due to MLS reporting methods and allowable reporting policy, this data is only informational and may not be completely accurate.  Therefore, Coldwell Banker Realty does not guarantee the data’s accuracy.  Data maintained by the MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.  CA-BRE License # 01908304