Uncategorized February 13, 2023

Tahoe | Truckee 2023 January Market Report

View of Lake Tahoe framed by snow covered trees from high up Tahoe ski resort.

Coldwell Banker

2023 Real Estate Market Report

North Lake Tahoe -Truckee                        

Residential Properties – Single Family Homes and Condominiums

Activity January 2023

Residential Sales Summary 2023

Total Residential Sales:

What will happen in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee real estate market in 2023?  Well, let’s hope the first month is not an indicator.  Intense winter weather and the ongoing economic headwinds put it as the slowest January in the last 10 years.  51 Residences sold, which is 81% of the 5 year average for the month and 79% of the 10 year average.

January marked the fourth consecutive month that we hit a 10 year low for the number of residential transactions for the month.  At this point, the lack of activity is clearly a trend and not an anomaly.

Median and Average Sales Prices:

The median sales price for January came in at $975,000 and the average was at $1,287,689.

For single family homes the median was $977,500 and the average $1,383,380.  The highest sales price, for the month, was a new construction home in Lahontan that sold for $5.575m.

For condos and townhomes the median was $735,000 and the average $1,171,196.  The highest townhome sales price was at $4,000,000 in Fleur Du Lac.

Active Residential Inventory:

Active Listings:

We are in the heart of winter, when inventory hits annual lows.  There are 175 residences currently on the market.  Last year, at this time, there were about 80 residences actively for sale, but in 2019 the number was closer to 400.  Looking at long term numbers, inventory is still at the lowest levels we have seen historically prior to COVID (Around 60% of the average for the 5 years prior to COVID and 40% of the 10 year average) for this time of year.

For 21 consecutive months the number of new listings for that month has been below the 5 and 10 year averages.  In each of those 21 months the number of new listings has been among the 3 lowest totals for that month in the last 10 years.

Current Pending Sales:  The number of pending sales is at 61 (steady with the 62 last month).  About 50 residences went into contract in January (again steady with the pace of activity in December).

Current inventory represents about 3.4 months of supply relative to January activity.  Historically any number below 5 months of supply is considered a seller’s market.  But, this is a much more balanced market, even tipping toward buyer’s market, than that statistic might lead you to believe.

Sales Under $500,000:  There were 6 sales under $500k in January, representing 12% of all residential sales.  In 2022, 6% of sales were under $500k.

Mid-Range Market Sales $500,000 to $999,999:  21 residences sold between $500,000 and $999,999, representing 41% of total sales.   In 2022, 37% of sales were in this price range.

High End Home Sales $1,000,000 to $1,999,999:   18  residences sold between $1m – $2m, representing 35% of total sales.  In 2022, 37% of residential sales were in this range.

Luxury Home Sales Over $2 Million:   6 residences sold over $2 million, representing 12% of sales.  This includes 2 sales over $5 million.  In 2022, 20% of residential sales were over $2 million.

What’s Going On Looking Forward?

What lies ahead as we move into 2023?

Low inventory will continue to be a big force on the supply side of the market.  While inventory is nearly double what it was last year at this time, it is still below half of what we typically saw at this time of year in the pre-COVID benchmark years.

There are significant questions about how strong demand will be.  Short term variable like winter weather and major variables like inflation, interest rates, stock market volatility, recession, the Russia-Ukraine War, short term rental regulations (call if you have questions!) continue to adversely impact demand.

That said, it feels like there is a little bit of momentum building . . . a few more showings, a few more buyer leads, a few properties selling that had been on the market for an extended time.  We’ll have to wait and see if that momentum is sustainable or just a blip on the radar.

We expect below “normal” (by pre COVID standards) activity, measured by number of transactions,  to continue in Q1 2023.  Beyond that is more uncertain, but a strong winter can spur stronger activity (especially once the snow melts).

Sellers, keep in mind, this is still a much better time to be a seller than it was in 2019 (which seemed like a very healthy market at the time!).  You can expect a similar amount of time on market, but much higher sales prices!

Buyers, keep in mind, this is the most balanced market we have seen in the last 3 years.  You now have the following things working in your favor:

  • The ability to negotiate price is back!
  • The ability to inspect a property and have normal contingencies is back!
  • The ability to negotiate repairs is back!
  • Yes, interest rates are climbing, but if they continue to climb you will be glad you locked in now.  If/when they do reverse course, you can refinance to take advantage!

Contact Me Today to Find Out More about the Opportunities Available in the North Lake Tahoe-Truckee Market.

Note: Data on this page is based on information from the Tahoe Sierra Board of Realtors, MLS.  Due to MLS reporting methods and allowable reporting policy, this data is only informational and may not be completely accurate.  Therefore, Coldwell Banker Realty does not guarantee the data’s accuracy.  Data maintained by the MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.  CA-BRE License # 01908304