Tahoe | Truckee 2023 Q3 Market Report

Coldwell Banker

2023 Real Estate Market Report

North Lake Tahoe -Truckee

Residential Properties – Single Family Homes and Condominiums

Activity January- September 2023

Residential Sales Summary 2023

Total Residential Sales:

After a slow first half of the year, the Lake Tahoe/Truckee real estate market steadied in Q3. After hitting just 66% of the 10 year average for transactions in the first half of the year, Q3 jumped to 80% of the 10 year average for the quarter, and August and September came in at 87% and 85% of the 10 year averages for the respective months (the closest we have come to monthly averages this year).

In September, 141 residences sold. That is up from 126 sales in September 2022 and is 80% of the 5 year average for the month and 85% of the 10 year average. If you like to play with numbers, and want to feel even more comfortable about the market, remove the COVID “boom” year outlier (291 sales in September 2020) and you would find this September at 93% of the average. That’s a healthy number.

Through the end of September, 750 residences have sold this year. This marks the lowest January through September total in the last 10 years and is 73% of the average of the 5 years immediately prior to COVID.

Median and Average Sales Prices:

The median sales price for residential real estate YTD through September came in at $1.075 million while the average was at $1.577 million.

For single family homes, the median sales price YTD is $1.2 million. That represents a decrease of 4% compared to the same period in 2022. However, it is still 60% higher than the same period in 2019 (pre-pandemic). For Q3 only, the median single family sales price is up 6.4% compared to Q3 2022, and up 62% compared to Q3 2019. For Q3 only, the average is up 13.4% compared to Q3 2022 and 61% compared to Q3 2019.

For condos, the year to date median was $725,000. That’s down 4% compared to the same period in 2022, but up 76% compared to 2019. For Q3 only, the median condo sales price is down 3.1% compared to Q3 2022, and up 55% compared to Q3 2019. For Q3 only, the average is up 1.5% compared to Q3 2022 and 66% compared to Q3 2019.

Despite the low numbers of transactions, the strength in pricing has us tracking toward the 3^rd highest sales volume in the last 10 years.

Active Residential Inventory:

Active Listings:

Active inventory got as high as 370 residences over the Labor Day Holiday but has dropped down to 330 (and will continue to drop as we head into winter). Last year, at this time, inventory had already dipped below 300 residences, but in 2019 the number was closer to 600. Looking at long term numbers, inventory is still at the lowest levels we have seen historically prior to COVID (Around 60% of the average for the 5 years prior to COVID and 40% of the 10 year average) for this time of year.

Current Pending Sales: The number of pending sales has dropped below 100 after having stayed in the 130-150 range most of summer. About 130 residences went into contract in September (down from 150 in August).

Current inventory represents 2.5 months of supply. Historically any number below 5 months of supply is considered a seller’s market. But, this is a fairly balanced market, with slight advantages to buyers or sellers in different price ranges and neighborhoods.

An important market dynamic to mention here is that cancelled escrows have been increasing. For the last 2 months, 3 to 5 transactions have been cancelling each week.

Sales Under $500,000: January through September there were 49 sales under $500k, representing 7% of all residential sales. For the same period in 2022, 6% of sales were under $500k.

Mid-Range Market Sales $500,000 to $999,999: 288 residences have sold between $500,000 and $999,999, representing 38% of total sales. In 2022, 36% of sales were in this price range.

High End Home Sales $1,000,000 to $1,999,999: 276 residences sold between $1m – $2m, representing 37% of total sales. In 2022, 38% of residential sales were in this range.

Luxury Home Sales Over $2 Million: 136 residences sold over $2 million, representing 18% of sales. This includes 37 sales over $5 million of which 7 were over $10 million. In 2022, 20% of residential sales were over $2 million including 39 sales over $5 million of which 12 were over $10 million and 2 over $20 million.

What’s Going On Looking Forward?

The fall colors are spectacular right now, but the days are rapidly getting shorter. Before you know it, we’ll be skiing!

In a good year fall is a very busy season for us, and so far, activity has been solid. It feels like there is still solid demand out there, and some motivated sellers remain on the market. However, the standing inventory, and new inventory, is diminishing fast. The number of new transactions will diminish as well.

My hunch is the number of transactions will be quite low this winter, but it still might be a good time to be a seller (because of very little supply and healthy demand).

Sellers, keep in mind, this is still a much better time to be a seller than it was in 2019 (which seemed like a very healthy market at the time!). You can expect a similar amount of time on market, but much higher sales prices!

Buyers, keep in mind, this is the most balanced market we have seen in the last 3 years. You now have the following things working in your favor:

The ability to negotiate price is back!
The ability to inspect a property and have normal contingencies is back!
The ability to negotiate repairs is back!
Yes, interest rates are climbing, but if they continue to climb you will be glad you locked in now. If/when they do reverse course, you can refinance to take advantage!

Contact MeToday to Find Out More about the Opportunities Available in the North Lake Tahoe-Truckee Market.

Note: Data on this page is based on information from the Tahoe Sierra Board of Realtors, MLS. Due to MLS reporting methods and allowable reporting policy, this data is only informational and may not be completely accurate. Therefore, Coldwell Banker Realty does not guarantee the data’s accuracy. Data maintained by the MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. CA-BRE License # 01908304